WORLD DOMINATION BY PANDEMIC

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CDC Says Possibly 'Less Than Half' Of Positive Antibody Tests Are Correct


Tommy BeerForbes Staff
Business
Updated May 26, 2020, 07:56pm EDT




TOPLINE

In updated guidance posted on its website over the weekend, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention acknowledged an inability to accurately determine if individuals had been infected with Covid-19 via antibody tests; if the test is used in a population where prevalence is low, it's possible that "less than half of those testing positive will truly have antibodies."









ST PETERSBURG, RUSSIA - MAY 20, 2020: A healthcare worker performs laboratory tests which detect ... [+] PETER KOVALEV/TASS
KEY FACTS


There are two kinds of Covid-19 tests: molecular diagnostic tests, which can identify people with active infections, even when they have no symptoms, and antibody, or serology, tests, which indicate that a person was infected at some point in the past.

According to Christopher Farnsworth, an instructor of pathology and immunology at Washington University School of Medicine, "antibody testing is really helpful in monitoring how widely a virus has spread within a community. Such testing could help determine how many people have recovered from the virus, even if they never had symptoms."

Thus, antibody tests could potentially play a very important role if and when schools should reopen, or when professional sports will return.

However, the CDC has acknowledged that antibody testing can frequently be inaccurate, especially in populations where there is a low prevalence of the coronavirus.

In fact, under certain scenarios, “less than half of those testing positive will truly have antibodies,” the agency says.

This is particularly dangerous because it could lead to individuals believing they have been infected with the coronavirus, and acting as if they have immunity, when that is not the case.


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As a result, the CDC advises that antibody test results should not be used to make decisions related to schools, dormitories, or correctional facilities, and that testing shouldn't be used to determine immune status in individuals.
BIG NUMBER:

98,717: That's the number of Americans that have died from coronavirus as of Tuesday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
CRITICAL QUOTE:

"The viral testing is to understand how many people are getting infected, while antibody testing is like looking in the rearview mirror. The two tests are totally different signals," Ashish Jha, professor of Global Health at Harvard, told The Atlantic last week.
KEY BACKGROUND:

A positive test indicates an individual has produced antibodies in response to a previous infection. Still, it does not definitively tell us whether those antibodies will protect that person from getting re-infected. Fortunately, according to the CDC, recurrence of Covid-19 illness appears to be very uncommon, suggesting that the presence of antibodies "could confer at least short-term immunity to infection with SARS-CoV-2."
FURTHER READING:

Coronavirus Antibody Tests Aren’t The ‘Get Out Of Jail Free’ Card Many Hope For (Forbes)

Interim Guidelines for COVID-19 Antibody Testing (CDC)

Antibody tests might be wrong half the time, CDC advises (CDC)

Experts urge caution in interpreting COVID-19 antibody tests (Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis)

Rollout of antibody tests met with confusion, little oversight (CNN)

'How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?' (The Atlantic)

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RENOWNED FORENSIC DOCTOR DESTROYS MEDIA ‘KILLER VIRUS’ LIES: ‘NOBODY HAS DIED OF COVID-19 IN HAMBURG WITHOUT PREVIOUS ILLNESSES’ (WATCH)

Posted by Amy Mek
On May 7, 2020

Angela Merkel, autopsy, Chinese Coronavirus, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Germany, Hamburg, Klaus Püschel, Professor Püschel, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf

Prominent forensic medicine professor Klaus Püschel has vast experience in autopsying individuals who have died with the Chinese coronavirus in Hamburg, Germany. During an appearance German television, the professor stunned the audience by claiming that the hysteria over the coronavirus is “completely exaggerated,” as all fatalities he examined had serious previous illnesses which would have soon resulted in death with or without the virus. Püschel stated that there is no “killer virus.” 

Since the pandemic began, the head of forensic medicine at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf and his team have been autopsying the people who died in Hamburg in connection with the coronavirus. According to Püschel, all of the deceased had at least one previous illness. “[E]ven if this sounds harsh,” Püschel said, “they would all have died in the course of this year.” About 80 percent of the more than 140 people examined suffered from cardiovascular diseases. The average age of the dead is 80 years. 

Püschel slammed German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s irresponsible and alarmist propaganda towards the coronavirus:

“I think it’s really completely inappropriate when a president tells his people that we are at war, or when the German chancellor compares the situation with the last world war.”

“No killer virus”

Healthy people should not be afraid of infection: “The fear that this is a killer virus and that many will die from it is completely exaggerated,” said Püschel. “We have to make it clear that we don’t want to be in a glass case. We can’t protect ourselves from everything. And this virus is a comparatively low risk.” The virus is also by no means a death sentence for the elderly and sick. “Most will survive the disease there,” said Püschel.

“This virus affects our lives in a completely exaggerated way. This is out of proportion to the risk posed by the virus,” says the renowned medical examiner. “I am convinced that corona mortality will not even make itself felt as a peak in annual mortality.” There is no reason for fear of death in connection with the spread of the disease in the Hamburg region.

Püschel advocates opening the daycare centers

Püschel sees no particular dangers for most people with the novel corona virus: “Especially children, adolescents, the working population will normally survive this disease without damage.” 

That is why Püschel also pleads for the opening of daycare centers and schools:

“The general experience is that the children do not get particularly sick, the adolescents do not get particularly sick. There is not even any indication that they are special spreaders.” The population had to live with the virus: “We have to make friends with it in a way, deal with it, like with the flu and with other infections.”

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SAT.1 Regional

The doctor underlined the importance of determining whether patients died of the virus rather than with the virus. Autopsies that were carried out abroad paint a relatively clear picture.

Dr Püschel has addressed the lack of transparency when it comes to including fatalities in the virus toll:

“Insufficient amounts of information about exceptional cases are for example made public. Some patients who passed away may be classified as coronavirus deaths even though they may have, in reality, died from an unrelated illness.

As the doctor explained, many patients that succumbed to the illness were very old, smokers, obese, or had preexisting conditions such as diabetes. Lifestyle, age, and other illnesses are therefore closely associated with higher risks, he concluded. By examining other organs, autopsies can play a key role in gaining a better understanding of the virus’s mechanisms.

Transcript: many thanks to Miss Piggy for the translation:

TV Host:

Now we’ll speak with someone who caused quite a stir in the media over the last few weeks.

Professor Klaus Püschel is the head of forensic medicine at the University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE). He and his colleague are autopsying all those who died of COVID-19 in Hamburg.

In his opinion, the fear of the virus is exaggerated. COVID-19 is a comparatively harmless disease.

He’s my guest now in the studio. A very warm welcome to you, Professor Püschel. Just to clarify, you think that Corona is affecting us and society in a completely inappropriate and exaggerated way. Is that right?

Professor:

I stand by that. To make it clear, I’ll say that I think it’s completely exaggerated, for example when this virus is referred to as a KILLER VIRUS. When people are very afraid of it. I think it’s really completely inappropriate when a president tells his people that we are at war, or when the German chancellor compares the situation with the last world war.

We have a virus here that we already know in principle.

However, this is new version which came to us as a pandemic, so we have to react to it in a very special way.

It’s the fear that always eats souls. The individual — you and I — we don’t have to be particularly afraid. There are many other dangers occurring in life that affect us far more.

TV Host:

Ten days ago in an interview with a major newspaper, you said that you hadn’t had a single case of COVID-19 on your dissection table. Not one had died from the illness COVID-19 alone without another pre-existing condition.

Is that still the case?

Professor:

—Yes. That remains the case. All [COVID-19] deaths for this region, which have now passed 100, have been autopsied, and each one had serious pre-existing diseases.

They were between 50 and 100 years old. The average age is 80 years old.

This indicates clearly that these are people who aren’t in good general condition. Here I must add that they all had at least one special or rather even several diseases.

Cardiovascular disease, heart attack, enlarged heart, constriction of the coronary arteries, calcification of the arteries, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Also liver disease, cirrhosis, kidney insufficiency, metabolic diseases such as diabetes mellitus, dementia, and in such conditions the immune system is weakened and does not react adequately.

TV Host:

What do you find in the victims of COVID-19 when you open them?

Professor:

The many pre-existing diseases that I’ve spoken of.

We regularly find respiratory infections and pneumonia,vand with the pneumonia come a variety of other complications.

On the one hand the virus-related cellular changes, which are very typical, but also accompanying infections,vso-called bacterial super-infections, and nosocomial infections.

TV Host:

What is that?

Professor:

—These are diseases that you only get when you are in hospital or undergoing medical treatment, due to its not being sterile everywhere.

The hygienic conditions in our country are comparatively good, so it cannot be compared to the situation in other countries. We think that is important in the cases of pneumonia. I always point out that relatively often pulmonary embolisms are due to thrombosis, which is why I always say, please stay active and keep moving.

TV Host:

Please stay active and keep moving. Thank you very much for your assessments and your visit, and your explanation, Professor Püschel from the Forensic Medicine Department at the University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE).



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Covid-19 has infected hundreds of thousands of Americans and affected millions more around the world. Across America, shuttered schools have put 30 million children at risk of going hungry. Closed businesses have left more than 20 million workers without income. And while locking down our economy is crucial for saving lives now, it has tremendous consequences for the poorest among us – as people of color and low-income Americans are disproportionately losing livelihoods, and lives. In the face of an ineffective nationally-coordinated response, insufficient data, and inadequate amounts of protective gear and testing, we need an exit plan.

Testing is our way out of this crisis. Instead of ricocheting between an unsustainable shutdown and a dangerous, uncertain return to normalcy, the United States must mount a sustainable strategy with better tests and contact tracing, and stay the course for as long as it takes to develop a vaccine or cure. Any plan to do so must win the faith of private and public sector leaders across the country, and of individual Americans that they and their loved ones will be safer when we begin to return to daily life.

The Rockefeller Foundation exists to meet moments like this. In the past two weeks we have brought together experts and leaders from science, industry, academia, public policy, and government – across sectors and political ideologies – to create a clear, pragmatic, data-driven, actionable plan to beat back Covid-19 and get Americans back to work more safely.

Our National Covid-19 Testing Action Plan lays out the precise steps necessary to enact robust testing, tracing, and coordination to more safely reopen our economy – starting with a dramatic expansion of testing from 1 million tests per week to initially 3 million per week and then 30 million per week, backed by an Emergency Network for Covid-19 Testing to coordinate and underwrite the testing market, a public-private testing technology accelerator, and a national initiative to rapidly expand and optimize the use of U.S., university, and local lab capacity. The plan also includes: launching a Covid Community Healthcare Corps so every American can easily get tested with privacy-centric contact tracing; a testing data commons and digital platform to track Covid-19 statuses, resources, and effective treatment protocols across states and be a clearinghouse for data on new technologies; and a Pandemic Testing Board, in line with other recommendations, to bridge divides across governmental jurisdictions and professional fields.

Together, we can do this. This action plan benefits from and builds on prior proposals, current efforts, and the broad participation of experts from so many fields. Enacting it will require strong leadership and collaboration: across states, cities, and federal government, and from businesses, nonprofits, universities, community groups, and individuals.

Though our country’s needs are great, so is our ability to meet them. With urgency, action, and partnership, we can channel our energy to respond, recover, and eventually rebuild – together.

Dr. Rajiv J. Shah
President, The Rockefeller Foundation
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FUTURE WARFARE [CIRCA 2025]

Author: Dennis M. Bushnell
Organisation: NASA Langley Research Center
Publish Date: 2011
Country: Global
Sector: Research
Method: Forecasting
Theme: Protection
Type: Presentation
Language: English
Tags: Warfare, Future, Politics, IT Revolution, Bio revolution, Volumetric weaponry, Robotics


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